Chile's website will be a "difficult process of global economic recovery" until November 2023. The full text is summarized as follows: Although there are preliminary signs that the supply problem may be receding, trade channels have become so blocked that the most affected industries may not resume normal operation until next year. There are increasing signs that the global supply chain crisis may begin to ease by the end of this year. The crisis has overturned the inflation expectations of central banks, slowed the economic recovery and squeezed corporate profit margins. However, trade channels have become so blocked. Even assuming that COVID-19's new turn will not cause new damage, the worst affected industries may have to wait until next year to return to normal. "We expect that in the second half of this year, we will begin to see a gradual easing of shortages, bottlenecks and supply chain dislocation," Steve kahilan, chief executive of food entrepreneur Le's, told Reuters However, he added: "I don't think it will return to the normal operating environment until 2024, because this dislocation is so serious." The world trade system has never had a crisis like COVID-19 before. Since 2020, many enterprises have responded to the economic downturn by canceling production plans for the next year. However, they are surprised to find that rapid vaccination and financial support for household expenditure in rich countries have triggered a big rebound in demand. "Although the constraints on the supply chain continue to hinder growth, there are signs that the problem has passed its peak, which is a factor contributing to the slight easing of consumer price inflation," Aisin Huamai said At the same time, as consumer spending shifted from services to goods, epidemic control measures and frequent infections led to labor shortages and factory closures. Philip Ryan, chief economist of the European Central Bank, compared the consequences with the consequences of the Second World War. After World War II, demand soared, and enterprises had to quickly shift from the production of military materials to the production of civil goods. The recovery of export economies such as Germany was hampered by supply bottlenecks in their factories, and rising transportation costs combined with rising fuel prices pushed inflation in the United States to a 40 year high. Now, as COVID-19's less aggressive variant of the drug has prompted authorities to relax restrictions, there are initial indications that the supply problem may be fading. A previous survey by the American Institute of supply management showed that labor supply and supplier delivery in the United States increased for the third consecutive month. At the same time, the purchasing managers' index in Europe also reflects that the pressure has eased. Although this has boosted central banks' expectations that inflationary pressures will fall significantly by the end of the year, they also know that data from the real economy are still mixed. Sulin sko, CEO of Danish Maersk Group, a shipping giant, said recently that he expects more people to return to work in the port, more newly built cargo ships will be put into operation, and consumer demand will restart to promote shipping services. "Sometime this year, we will see a more normal situation," sko predicted The German shipping company Herbert also pointed out that the bottleneck of delivery and the rise of freight prices have been alleviated. The biggest uncertainty facing the industry is how long it will take to restore a more reliable delivery time. According to the Danish shipping consultancy "maritime intelligence", the current bottleneck is unprecedented, but past experience shows that it will take eight to nine months for ports and inland transport networks to recover. "In other words, there is no sign that the market is moving towards a solution," Alan Murphy, the agency's chief executive, said in an analysis of current trends He compared the current situation with the average shipping delay data in the past. Any solution depends on whether the supply chain that has been seriously affected will suffer further blow. On the 10th, this vulnerability was exposed. On the same day, strantis, the parent company of Toyota, general motors, Ford and Chrysler, said that the production of their North American factories was impacted by the shortage of parts supply caused by the protest of Canadian truck drivers against the epidemic prevention and control measures. [source: reference information network]